000 AXNT20 KNHC 041056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N64W TO 6N65W...MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 15N AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 58W-68W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N78W TO 11N79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND PANAMA...S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-81W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 13N17W TO 9N20W TO 8N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 8N26W TO 9N40W TO 8N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 33W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 96W-99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO TO S FLORIDA S OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN ARE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. BOTH AREAS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. A DRY AIRMASS (SAL) PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W TO 26N60W TO 27N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N59W. A SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 33W-40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA