000 AXNT20 KNHC 040542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N62W TO 7N63W...MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 15N AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 58W-66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N74W TO 11N79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI...E CUBA...AND W OF JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 14N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 10N20W TO 8N40W TO 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO TO S FLORIDA S OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN ARE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. BOTH AREAS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... EVENING CONVECTION IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER HAITI. A DRY AIRMASS (SAL) PREVAILS TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W TO 27N60W TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N56W. A SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 33W-40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA