000 AXNT20 KNHC 031725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 10N TO 20N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HAITI AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI... ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO AND BEYOND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HAITI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...CURVING TO 10N18W AND 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO 6N30W 4N40W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA AND COASTAL TEXAS...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITHIN 100 NM TO 130 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS/NORTHWESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO ALONG 23N/24N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. BROAD REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW LINGERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND THE MEXICO COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH... KGBK...KCRH AND KGHB AND KIKT WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG...KVQT...KSPR IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG...KMDJ...KVOA...KMIS...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN TEXAS...IN THE DEEP SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...IN LOUISIANA...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND PARTS OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/ COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AND/OR HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI...ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO AND BEYOND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W... AND FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HAITI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.33 IN TRINIDAD...0.30 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.19 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA THAT ARE ALONG 79W...BEYOND WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 12N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 77W AND 84W IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. HAITI CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN WITH TIME. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N70W 26N60W BEYOND 32N56W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A 38N64W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 38N64W CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W AND 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W TO 26N72W AND 29N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 24N70W 25N74W 28N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.30 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 34N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N32W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N34W. A WEAKENING 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W...FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W...AND FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W...AND THE 32N53W 26N67W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT