000 AXNT20 KNHC 031053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 20N ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N37W 8N45W TO NEAR 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE SW ATLC OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 92W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. SOME REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 87W-90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY ALABAMA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS EVENING THEN FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO NW COAST OF MEXICO SAT WHERE THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO S TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST NE OF LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 14N79W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE COSTA RICA/ NICARAGUA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BARBADOS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SE NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MONRING. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND E FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SAT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N72W TO 27N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N61W TO 26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 27N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH E OF 74W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1018 MB LOW NEAR 28N33W. THE UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 22N38W TO 29N52W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N51W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N56W ALONG 26N67W TO 27N74W TODAY THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION ON SAT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW