000 AXNT20 KNHC 030546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 52W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W S OF 20N ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N18W TO 5N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N31W TO NEAR 6N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 23W- 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO N OF TAMPICO ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE SW ATLC OVER S FLORIDA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. SOME REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 84W-89W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO BROWNSVILLE FRI EVENING THEN FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO NW COAST OF MEXICO SAT EVENING WHERE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO S TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 18N61W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 13N78W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN 13N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FRI REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND E FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SAT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO NEAR 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MIAMI TO NEAR 25N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM N OF OF THE TROUGH E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES TO 26N68W TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 67W-77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N32W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N33W. THE UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 37W-58W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N48W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N56W TO 26N67W 27N74W EARLY FRI SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION ON SAT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW