000 AXNT20 KNHC 022330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N53W TO 05N54W. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED AFTER ANALYZING THE LIFE OF THE WAVE AS VIEWED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAL IS NORTH OF THE WAVE AND SOME IS PUSHING S TO PREVAIL IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 50W-58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS FROM 19N66W TO 11N66W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DUST AND SAL IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS LIMITING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N22W TO 06N30W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 06N30W TO 05N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS QUIET. THE UPPER- LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING W FROM WESTERN CUBA AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF 23N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI MORNING AND REACH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY SUN MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AFFECTING THEIR COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 13N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW MAINLY S OF 12N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT PREVAILS N OF PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...HISPANIOLA... QUIET WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE HAS NO CONVECTION RELATED TO AS A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIRMASS (SAL) IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF IT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 25N69W. TO THE N OF THIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONNECT TO A COLD FRONT RELATED TO A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 34N58W. ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS MAINLY S OF THE FRONTS FROM 31N55W TO 26N77W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 33N50W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW IS BEING GENERATED BETWEEN THESE HIGHS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 45W-53W. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED S OF THIS CONVECTION NEAR 25N48W. CALM WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE WESTERN ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY EARLY FRI BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE BASIN FROM THE W BY SAT MOVING ACROSS E THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA