000 AXNT20 KNHC 021759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 10N TO 20N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 67W EASTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W...CURVING TO 8N20W 7N30W AND 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 8N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N FROM 80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO RETURN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS HAPPENING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N88W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N95W TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 02/0815 UTC THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE PLATFORM SITES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN TEXAS...IN WESLACO AND MCALLEN...IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS... FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...RAIN AND CLOUDS IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN/ COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WITH LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE LAKE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/ COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS IN MARY ESTHER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AROUND AREAS OF FORT MYERS AND IN MARATHON KEY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N56W...ACROSS GUADELOUPE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N69W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N77W...ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALSO FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.03 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.79 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.60 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL PANAMA ALONG 79W...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W...TO 7N81W AND 4N79W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF 21N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO- EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN WITH TIME. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 29N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N66W AND 26N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N73W TO 28N79W AND BEYOND FLORIDA ALONG 28N... INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W 28N60W 28N62W 25N68W 24N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALSO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 73W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.03 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.79 IN BERMUDA. ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A TROUGH IS NEAR 32N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N27W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 30N27W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N33W AND 18N37W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 31N30W TO 29N27W AND 24N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N40W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N46W...24N60W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT