000 AXNT20 KNHC 291155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 9N37W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 36W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 11N- 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N20W 9N19W TO 7N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W 7N39W TO 7N46W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 15W-36W. THE NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 15N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 29N88W WITH A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING 28N95W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-86W AND N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 19N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD AS THE LOW MOVES E-NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 76W-80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N- 12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N62W TO 32N61W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N- 27N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 24N50W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 28N34W TO 23N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW