000 AXNT20 KNHC 281036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N28W TO 7N29W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 26W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N74W TO 11N75W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N95W TO 13N95W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND ARE MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE EXTREME S PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 7N25W TO 6N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N30W TO 7N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE OF AFRICA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W AND ALSO FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. MAINLY E TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH AND OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FL IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW MOVING W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION...A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE FEATURES...A COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N66W NORTHEASTWARD TO 37N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W. A SECOND 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S AND E OF THIS SECOND LOW FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A THIRD 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N35W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 32N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W. 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