000 AXNT20 KNHC 280552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N26W TO 7N28W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 16N. THE GOES- R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST REGION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N73W TO 11N74W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 69W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N94W TO 14N95W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 7N20W TO 5N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AFRICA FROM 6N TO 10N E OF 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO THE N MEXICO COAST AT 25N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 81W-89W...AND FROM 25N- 31N BETWEEN 89W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. MAINLY E TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT N WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO FOR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER FL AND THE E GULF AS WELL WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 69W. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE CUBA AND ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW MOVING W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION...A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. A SECOND 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S AND E OF THIS SECOND LOW FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. A THIRD 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 59W-72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA