000 AXNT20 KNHC 272357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N25W TO 6N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N- 15N BETWEEN 25W-28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N72W TO 12N72W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS BENEATH A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTHERN MEXICO ...AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N93W TO 14N94W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM IF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 7N25W TO 5N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N- 12N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 81W-89W...AND FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 91W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT N WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO FOR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE E... WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. A THIRD 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SE OF THE CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 50W-65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N40W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N- 33N BETWEEN 33W-38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA