000 AXNT20 KNHC 261037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS AT ABOUT 80 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO. THIS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N64W TO 12N65W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 59W- 66W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N88W TO 11N88W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 83W...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 12N22W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N43W TO 11N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N48W TO 15N58W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 09N-15N E OF 20W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION W OF 93W GENERATED BY THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 24N89W TO 26N81W. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE GULF WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS INDUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 89W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IMPROVING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 21N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WHICH COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 73W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS S OF HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS TO 60 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N65W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 59W- 66W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE PUERTO RICO. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NE OF THIS LOW ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 31N42W TO 23N51W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS GENERALLY N OF 28N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA