000 AXNT20 KNHC 260552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N33W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 21N33W TO 18N35W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS AT ABOUT 110 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO. THIS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N63W TO 10N64W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 59W-65W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO 09N87W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 12N27W TO 11N35W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 13N43W TO 13N46W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N46W TO 14N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 09N-15N E OF 18W AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM 30N94W TO 23N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 24N90W TO 26N82W. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE GULF WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS INDUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 23N-26N W OF 86W. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 22N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IMPROVING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 21N86W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WHICH COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 72W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW ZONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS S OF HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 39N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS TO 120 NM OF EACH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N64W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 19N-22N BETWEEN 59W-65W. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS GENERALLY N OF 28N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA