000 AXNT20 KNHC 260003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N31W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 20N32W TO 16N33W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N61W TO 10N63W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 11N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 12N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N48W TO 12N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 39W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORT A WARM FRONT ALONG 29N92W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 23N95W TO 19N94W. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE NW GULF WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL- SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 25N85W TO 25N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE WEAK LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THAT REGION BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 84W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NE OF THE EASTERN BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A ZONE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS OF BOTH TERRITORIES. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW ZONE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THUS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N78W SW TO 27N80W ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N77W TO 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM N OF 23N W OF 75W. TO THE E-SE...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N57W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 22N BETWEEN 59W-65W ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC GENERALLY N OF 23N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR