000 AXNT20 KNHC 251000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N32W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N33W TO 14N33W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. BOTH THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N58W TO 12N58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 55W-63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN ALONG THE AXIS S OF 15N...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N78W TO 10N79W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N209N BETWEEN 75W-77W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N17W TO 14N25W TO 13N30W TO 10N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N37W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W THEN STARTS AGAIN FROM 12N547W TO 11N57W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 24W-31W AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 25N97W TO 28N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF EACH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PREVAILING E OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ACROSS BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CUBA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N87W PAIRED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 22N86W TO 14N89W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES S OF 12N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE PACIFIC. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION SW HAITI. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS 20N AFFECTION THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 35N76W AND THEN N INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N77W. THESE SYSTEMS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES BEING TRANSPORTED TO THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO 24N78W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREVAILING AT ABOUT 100 NM E AND W FROM THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 55W-61W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N- 31N BETWEEN 22W-31W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA