000 AXNT20 KNHC 250545 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N31W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 19N32W TO 14N32W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. BOTH THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N54W TO 13N57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 53W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 15N...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N78W TO 10N78W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. DESPITE THIS...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 73W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 15N23W TO 10N35W TO 11N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N38W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 12N51W TO 13N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 25W-32W AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 42W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 35N77W IN THE ATLANTIC CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N86W. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N88W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT MAINLY E OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE LOW AND FRONT ON THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CUBA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N83W PAIRED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 22N85W TO 17N87W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES S OF 10N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE PACIFIC. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION SW HAITI. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS 20N AFFECTION THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 37N75W AND THEN N INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 30N72W. THESE SYSTEMS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES BEING TRANSPORTED TO THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N75W TO 25N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N59W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 20N- 25N BETWEEN 55W-62W. A SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED FROM 30N28W TO 28N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 23W-31W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA