000 AXNT20 KNHC 250007 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N30W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 19N31W TO 14N31W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW UP TO 30N AND 22W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N53W TO 13N56W...MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AIR TRAILING THE WAVE AXIS WHERE CONVECTION IS DEVOIDED. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE WAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 19N-25N WITHIN 500 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 16N...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N76W TO 9N77W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N W OF 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE E PAC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO 12N30W TO 11N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N38W INTO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 13N55W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-16N BETWEEN 22W- 32W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N80W TO 27N82W AND INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 25N86W. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N88W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 23N95W AND A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 86W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE LOW AND FRONT ON THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 90W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THAT SUPPORTS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NW CARIBBEAN. FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 18N82W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 12N W OF 80W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W- 80W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EASTERN BASIN BETWEEN 65W- 70W. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 55W AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 75W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE THU TO FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW AND TROUGHING SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N78W AND AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 23N76W WHERE HIGH MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 73W-78W. A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 57W-63W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 23N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM 29N29W TO 28N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR