000 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 25N30W MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N THAT HAS PULLED NORTH OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ZONE. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N33W THAT INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 27W-41W. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CONTINUING TO IMPACT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AND WAVE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 25W- 28W...AND FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 26W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO 22N53W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND COINCIDES WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 49W-57W. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N57W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL HIGH WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N73W TO 21N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE REGION OF THE WAVE WHICH CONTINUES TO STRETCH LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 33N67W. A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO 28N73W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 65W- 75W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 71W-74W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N87W TO 21N91W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 90W OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA. WHILE 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...THE MAIN MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT LIES WEST OF COSTA RICA IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR 08N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 12N22W TO 12N30W TO 10N35W TO 11N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N39W INTO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 14N45W TO 12N53W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 18W-33W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO A BASE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA NEAR 17N91W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N80W TO 26N82W AND INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 26N90W TO 22N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND COASTAL WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 90W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THAT SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 18N83W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 79W-88W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS CONVECTION LIES LARGELY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED WEST OF THE BASIN ALONG 90W. TO THE EAST...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 74W WITH A PORTION OF THE ENERGY FRACTURED NORTH OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 64W- 75W. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 54W AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 74W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 18N AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES NEAR 37N82W WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND TROUGHING SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N79W AND AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 76W-81W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL AREA...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FRACTURED NORTH AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N74W TO 28N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 70W-76W. TO THE EAST...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN 51W-63W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 23N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM 29N29W TO 28N45W. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS LIMITED...EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 23/1120 UTC AND 23/1212 UTC INDICATED STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE AXIS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN