000 AXNT20 KNHC 241033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N29W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N30W TO 11N29W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 26W-31W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N51W TO 10N51W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE INHIBITING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N73W TO 12N73W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 70W-76W AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS FROM 21N92W TO 07N89W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N25W. IT RESUMES NEAR 12N31W TO 10N38W TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR 13N43W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG 12N BETWEEN 31W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM 26N97W TO 29N83W AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL-HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF KEEPING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE EXITING HISPANIOLA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN W OF 71W. THE FEEDING BAND OF AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W BETWEEN 14N-16N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 73W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN US AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 35N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 100-150 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N72W IS PAIRING WITH THIS TROUGH TO KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-63W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N29W TO 28N41W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N41W TO 26N46W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN 28W-34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA