000 AXNT20 KNHC 240547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N29W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 18N30W TO 12N29W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 29W-31W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N49W TO 10N51W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE INHIBITING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N71W TO 12N72W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 70W-76W AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS FROM 21N91W TO 07N87W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N22W TO 06N28W. IT RESUMES NEAR 13N30W TO 12N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 10N49W TO 09N53W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 23W-29W...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 31W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM 25N97W TO 29N83W AND EXTENDING TO THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL-HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF KEEPING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN W OF 68W. THE FEEDING BAND OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W BETWEEN 14N-16N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 72W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN US AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 34N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N- 28N BETWEEN 56W-61W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N28W TO 29N39W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N39W TO 26N45W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 28N-31W BETWEEN 28W-32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA