000 AXNT20 KNHC 151801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 55.5W AT 15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 560 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF EDOUARD FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N24W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N24W TO 8N24W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE S OF 16N FROM 19W TO 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N44W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 17N45W TO 9N46W...MOVING WEST AT 15- 20 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 21N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 93W AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N24W TO 8N47W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 42W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LA COAST NEAR 24N91W INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH 28N94W TO THE N MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 27N94W TO 19N95W. A TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 93W. A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN TH NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVER TX/MEXICO ON TUESDAY WHILE THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE MOISTURE IS COMBINING WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W AND SW CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N81W ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... MODERATE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N66W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE AND ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE PRESENT...NO DEEP CONVECTION OTHER THAN DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N66W COMBINED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ABOVE...HURRICANE EDOUARD AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO