000 AXNT20 KNHC 141750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 14/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. AT THAT TIME...EDOUARD WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 50.7W OR ABOUT 915 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 21N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 37W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N88W TO 26N86W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 22N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS BOTH FEATURES MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 10N23W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 19W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 25W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM TX NEAR 26N97W TO THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100NM OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE LOW HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N89W TO 29N87W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TX GULF COAST AND A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE W GULF AND MERGE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF SHOULD LESSEN WHILE THE W GULF BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THAT PART OF THE BASIN. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W WHERE A SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N65W. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W DRIFTING WESTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TX COAST. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR 30N69W AND 30N34W. BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HURRICANE EDOUARD. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT TRACKS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO