000 AXNT20 KNHC 141053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 49.7W AT 14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 825 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 45W-53W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 21N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 34W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N84W TO 27N82W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 81W-87W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A 1014 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N20W TO 12N30W TO 08N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N41W TO 07N47W TO 08N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 29N95W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 23N WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NE FLOW HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N88W TO 27N95W TO 25N100W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N86W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N87W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS MAXIMUM LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING LARGELY W OF A LINE FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 26N97W TO 20N91W. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS INFLUENCING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THAT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 79W IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 09N/10N. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N65W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD BASE LOCATED NEAR 13N71W. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 75W WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND LESSER ANTILLES. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF 73W. AS THE ENVIRONMENT REACHES PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-79W THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N65W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 61W-67W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N69W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N34W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE HIGHS...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD CONTINUES TO SPIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN