000 AXNT20 KNHC 140003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...EDOUARD IS CLOSE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ITS CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 47.5W...AT ABOUT 900 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 995 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 28W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N28W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N31W TO 13N32W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING N OF 07N BETWEEN 25W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N79W TO 10N79W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS TRAVELING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY STRETCH AND FRACTURE THE ENERGY NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE 700 MB TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N17W TO 14N31W TO 08N38W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N87W TO SE TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE TEXAS. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N97W MOVING NW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO AT 25N99W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. FURTHER E...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N85W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 23N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 27N BETWEEN 89W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 26N82W. THESE SYSTEMS ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO DIP FURTHER S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LOW OVER THE NW GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. CONVECTION IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE GULF WATERS AS THE LOW OVER THE SE CONTINUES MOVING W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE HISPANIOLA MAINLY GENERATED BY DIURNAL HEATING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N66W IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SOME DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED S OF HISPANIOLA BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION. THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER PANAMA WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER HAS BEEN PREVAILING OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTICED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 32N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 150 NM W OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THIS LOW TO DRIFT NE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 59W-66W ENHANCED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N66W. T.S. EDOUARD IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RIVERA