000 AXNT20 KNHC 131140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 46.2W AT 13/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 970 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 37W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N29W TO 19N25W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N28W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING N OF 07N BETWEEN 25W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 22N74W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAVEL THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY STRETCH AND FRACTURE ENERGY NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 17N21W TO 05N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 22W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA W-SW TO EASTERN COASTAL TEXAS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN IS S OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N96W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS N-NW TO 26N98W AND S-SE TO 18N95W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. THE OTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN SURROUNDS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 84W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N. THE LOW AND TROUGHING CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N66W THAT INFLUENCES A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT W OF 68W AND GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW E OF 68W ON THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING... MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THIS IS PRIMARILY WHERE MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL LIFT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-84W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IS ALSO ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN 78W-84W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLAND AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING. HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN NE FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED TO THE WEST AND THIS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N66W. ACTIVE WITHIN THE RIDGING ALOFT...MID- LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED S OF 28N W OF 68W...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 29N69W. MUCH OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 29N BETWEEN 74W-81W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N65W TO 29N70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 66W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N55W TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN ATLC. ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-50W MOVING NW. 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