000 AXNT20 KNHC 130546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 45.2W AT 13/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1020 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N- 25N BETWEEN 39W-47W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N27W TO 16N27W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N27W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING N OF 07N BETWEEN 22W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 27W-29W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N73W TO 21N72W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAVEL THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY STRETCH AND FRACTURE ENERGY NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 09N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 10W-13W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 34W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA W-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN IS W OF A LINE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED ON A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N96W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 25N96W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. THE OTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 30N84W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N- 27N BETWEEN 82W-85W. CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N67W THAT INFLUENCES A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT W OF 70W AND GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW E OF 70W ON THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THIS IS PRIMARILY WHERE MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL LIFT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-83W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W IS ALSO ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 13N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ENHANCING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN NE FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED TO THE WEST AND THIS STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N67W. ACTIVE WITHIN THE RIDGING ALOFT...MID- LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED S OF 28N W OF 70W...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 29N68W. MUCH OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-81W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N64W TO 28N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N53W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN ATLC. ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS LOCATED GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-50W MOVING WNW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN