000 AXNT20 KNHC 130001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 12/2100 UTC IS NEAR 19.5N 44.1W. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N25W TO 06N26W...THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED BUT THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 26W-28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N71W TO 11N71W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 71W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N17W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 08N59W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW TO NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. TO THE EAST...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS EXITING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH CENTER NEAR 21N100W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN US WITH CENTER NEAR 33N88W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN THE SAME UPPER-LEVEL HIGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS INTERACTION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW EXITING FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE FLORIDA SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING INSTABILITY TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA MAINLY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CUBA AND WESTERN JAMAICA FROM 18N-22N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS VISIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR PANAMA MAINLY ALONG 12N...BETWEEN 74W-83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER- LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 22N65W. THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING A NW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE CAN BE NOTICED NEAR PANAMA WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CENTER NEAR 22N65W. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE T.S. EDOUARD AND THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS (PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS)...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 31N64W TO 26N70W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W RELATED TO THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO WITH CENTER NEAR 22N65W. THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN US TO GENERATE DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RIVERA