000 AXNT20 KNHC 121749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR 18.5N 43.0W. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300 DEGREES...AT 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 5N25W TO 15N24W...THROUGH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N25W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED AROUND THE LOW WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 24W- 27W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 24W-29W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 20N70W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 11N AND 18N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N16W TO 11N25W TO 11N33W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 07N59W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 47W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW TO NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE W GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N99W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 32N89W. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NW GULF TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TX/LA COASTLINES AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W IS MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S AND CENTRAL FL...THE FL STRAITS...AND THE SE GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 79W-84W. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER S FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N65W...PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND 20 TO 30 KT OF SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-83W. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THERE. ...HISPANIOLA... CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA FROM A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N65W. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION IS BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAY BRING FAIR WEATHER TO HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N65W DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM 26N69W TO 31N66W IS ALSO DRIFTING WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 63W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 73W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER S FL NEAR 27N81W. FOR INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO