000 AXNT20 KNHC 111144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. THE TROUGH AND THE LOW CENTER ARE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS AFFECTING WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 13N INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...TO 14N21W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS THE ALONG THE 35W/36W SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 9N43W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT IN THE DATA AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE 91W/92W TROPICAL WAVE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE THAT WAS APPARENT AT 11/0000 UTC IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KMZG...KGVX...KAXO...AND KMDJ. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN PARTS OF THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN PARTS OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARIANNA FLORIDA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VISIBILITIES ARE AT 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE 91W/92W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 4N ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND FLORIDA...AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA...MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N74W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N77W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N77W TO ANDROS ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE ENVIRONMENT INTO WHICH THIS FEATURE IS MOVING IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA SLOWLY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE LOW AND TROUGH FEATURE WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 31N61W 28N63W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 31N61W 28N63W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N36W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT