000 AXNT20 KNHC 110604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE TROUGH AND LOW CENTER ARE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N55W 15N57W 9N58W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BEYOND THE WESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN GUATEMALA AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...TO 9N17W 14N25W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER/SPECIAL FEATURE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 35W/36W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 12N39W AND 9N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N43W TO 7N48W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 17N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BEYOND THE WESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN GUATEMALA AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N79W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KMDJ AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BEYOND THE WESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN GUATEMALA AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 82W WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 18N SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 85W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND FLORIDA...AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA...MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THIS FEATURE MOVING IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA SLOWLY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE LOW AND TROUGH FEATURE WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N64W TO 29N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N64W TO 29N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14.5N35W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT