000 AXNT20 KNHC 101205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N31W 14N34W 12N35W 9N38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF MEXICO 22N90W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 29W/30W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 9N34W TO 8N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N41W TO 7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N FROM 27W EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N FROM 30W WESTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF MEXICO 22N90W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 29N85W 25N90W 23N92W 20N90W...AROUND THE 22N89W CYCLONIC CENTER. A WEAK AND COMPARATIVELY FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KBBF AND KIKT. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... BILOXI MISSISSIPPI IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE VISIBILITIES AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAVE REACHED 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG A FEW TIMES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE AREA OF MARY ESTHER...VALPARAISO... DESTIN...APALACHICOLA...AND IN KEY WEST. THE VISIBILITY IS ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN PERRY FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF MEXICO 22N90W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 29N85W 25N90W 23N92W 20N90W...AROUND THE 22N89W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N IN COLOMBIA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W. ...A 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT AFFECTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 84W EASTWARD... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 84W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...SOME OF IT JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W EASTWARD. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RELATED TO A RIDGE. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...DURING THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N58W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 28N58W 26N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES/LESSER ANTILLES BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N26W...TO 28N40W. THE SOUTHERNMOST END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 31N14W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT