000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF MEXICO 22N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 29W/30W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 9N34W TO 8N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N41W TO 9N52W AND 8N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF MEXICO 22N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF PANAMA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 29N85W 25N90W 23N92W 20N90W...AROUND THE 22N89W CYCLONIC CENTER. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF MEXICO 22N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF PANAMA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N78W...BEYOND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA... BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 82W. ...A 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT AFFECTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 84W EASTWARD... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 84W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 84W EASTWARD. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RELATED TO A RIDGE. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...DURING THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N26W...TO 28N40W. THE SOUTHERNMOST END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 31N15W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N47W 23N40W 24N30W 27N20W BEYOND 32N10W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT