000 AXNT20 KNHC 100003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N27W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N28W. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 25W-35W. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N48W TO 10N49W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING A REGION OF HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N85W TO 10N86W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N16W TO 14N28W TO 07N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 07N59W. THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-88W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT N OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 81W-86W. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS TO THE E GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA EXTENDS TO THE SE GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...AND HENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E GULF AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ACROSS MEXICO/TEXAS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...KEEPING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 40 NM W OF WESTERN CUBA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH CENTER NEAR 21N78W. ASIDE FROM THAT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IS MOVING SW AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY S OF 23N...BETWEEN 73W-83W. IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF CUBA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ON THE CONTRARY...EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND ANOTHER CLUSTER REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS HAITI. THIS CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS LOW PREVAILS ACROSS CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SE BAHAMAS FROM 25N72W TO 22N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS (SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION)...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 30N. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH CENTER NEAR 25N57W. IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WHILE WEAKENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RIVERA