000 AXNT20 KNHC 091156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N26W 14N28W 12N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N21W 11N30W 6N40W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N44W 17N46W 10N45W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N40W 21N45W 16N49W 11N51W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO 16N82W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SURROUNDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 26W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PART OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...TO 9N30W AND 7N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N37W TO 7N44W AND TO 7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A BERMUDA 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N75W...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS AND FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION THAT IS NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN CRESTVIEW ALABAMA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR PERRY FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO 16N82W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SURROUNDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO 16N82W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN EASTERN HONDURAS...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SURROUNDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL BE FIRST SOUTHERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A NORTHEAST- TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 27N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N55W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N31W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 27N27W TO 32N40W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A BERMUDA 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N75W...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT