000 AXNT20 KNHC 090554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N42W 19N43W 14N44W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N36W 22N42W 19N46W 15N48W 12N49W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 17N81W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...AND IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 16N21W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...TO 8N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N38W TO 7N49W AND TO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND...FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 86W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N85W 27N86W 25N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N97W 21N96W 19N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KIKT. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE AREAS BETWEEN GULF SHORES ALABAMA AND DESTIN FLORIDA. SOME RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALSO IN APALACHICOLA DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 17N81W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...AND IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LINE FROM 18N79W TO 12N67W. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 17N81W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...AND IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL BE FIRST SOUTHERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A NORTHEAST- TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 27N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N55W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W... TO 25N55W AND 25N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N31W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N27W BEYOND 32N40W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 14W AND 44W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N63W...TO 31N72W...TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT