000 AXNT20 KNHC 081802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N22W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 10N22W TO 5N22W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW...TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 5N AND 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N40W TO 10N40W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 40W-45W WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N76W TO 9N77W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE. DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N95W TO 12N97W IN THE E PACIFIC MOVING WESTWARD AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE WAVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N AND W OF 94W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING IN THE E PACIFIC. DETAILS REGARDING THIS CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION MIATWDEP. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N17W ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W TO 7N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N38W TO 7N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N54W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 5N AND 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N96W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 28N97W. DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 88W ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER S MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS COMBINING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. CONVECTION IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N REACHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KT ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE BAHAMAS WITH CYLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN AND WILL BRING ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THEN WILL CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. MAINLY EASTERLY SURFACE TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRODUCED BY A NEARBY UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOME DRIER AIR NOTED IN SSMI TPW MAY BEGIN TO WORKS ITS WAY WEST IN THE AREA BEYOND 24 HOURS WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OCCURRING FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. A COLD FRONT OVER E ATLC IS LOCATED ALONG 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W AND EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 37N22W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK AND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS BERMUDA TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO AND WILL MEANDER FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR OTHER FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR