000 AXNT20 KNHC 081131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9.5N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N75W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 19W/20W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 8N24W AND 7N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N30W TO 7N37W 5N45W AND 6N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND THE COASTS OF TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. A NARROW MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL BORDER...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND BEYOND 20N101W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE U.S.A.... THAT PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. . THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KXIH...KEMK...AND KCRH. THE VISIBILITY OF BAY CITY TEXAS IS 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. SUGARLAND TEXAS IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARIANNA FLORIDA...AND IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N75W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N ALONG 74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 80W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N IN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N75W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CURRENT 23N75W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N26W...TO 30N40W...TO A 31N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N57W AND 16N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 35W EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT