000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SENEGAL AND GAMBIA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. THE CHANCE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N38W 16N37W 11N36W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N41W 18N40W 18N38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 16N74W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 18W/19W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 7N24W 8N33W 7N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N39W TO 6N45W AND 8N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SENEGAL AND GAMBIA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA. A NARROW MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL BORDER...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND BEYOND 20N101W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE U.S.A.... THAT PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS WERE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS AREA FROM ALABAMA TO LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS A FEW HOURS AGO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KXIH...KSPR...AND KIKT. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS IN ALICE...IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY IN FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 16N74W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INCLUDING AROUND LAKE MARACAIBO...IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...IN THE NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...IN BORDER SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...AND FROM 12.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 16N74W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS BETWEEN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GENERAL FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. EARLIER RAINSHOWERS THAT WERE IN HAITI HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA... AND PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CURRENT 23N75W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N26W...TO 30N40W...TO A 31N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N57W AND 16N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 35W EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE...NEAR 16N. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT