000 AXNT20 KNHC 061747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N THAT REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 26W- 38W AND A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 15N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N63W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED E-W AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE FROM 12N- 17N BETWEEN 50W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION RESULTS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 21N76W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT YET LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERALL. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXHIBITS MORE AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 75W-81W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N90W TO 22N88W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 84W- 90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N31W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 06N40W TO 06N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 09W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N AND AN AREA S OF 26N W OF 95W. CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N83W AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W THEN SW TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SET OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN-MOST WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT WEST CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. INTERACTING IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 84W. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA AND IS LARGELY MOVING BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 73W-81W. FARTHER EAST...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO IMPACT THE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CARRIES WITH IT A RELATIVELY COMPACT AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-64W. IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN-MOST WAVES IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-70W ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N71W. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THAT REMAIN MARGINALLY DIFFLUENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 24N71W...MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CURRENTLY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N80W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N71W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 66W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N70W. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N42W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 21N60W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N49W TO 29N56W TO 29N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N48W TO 25N55W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N44W TO 26N53W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N27W AND 28N33W ARE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN