000 AXNT20 KNHC 060605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS AS IT PASSES THROUGH HAITI. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LA ISLA DE PINOS OF CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD...INCLUDING IN CUBA AND ALONG ITS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 22N98W ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FOR MEXICO...ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 18N98W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W...PASSING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND CURVING TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG 26W/27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 8N30W 6N33W AND 6N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N40W TO 7N46W AND 7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N92W...OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF KEY WEST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ICAO STATION KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR SO ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT BOOTHVILLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN...BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE IN PERRY FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LA ISLA DE PINOS OF CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD...INCLUDING IN CUBA AND ALONG ITS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 17N55W TO 10N57W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF BARBADOS TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS THAT ARE ALONG 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 15N70W TO 11N62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.99 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND 9N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS AS IT PASSES THROUGH HAITI. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...WITH EARLIER RAINSHOWERS...COVER LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 25N70W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N79W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO A 31N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N47W...TO 22N50W...TO 17N55W...AND TO 10N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N40W...TO 26N41W AND TO 22N43W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT