000 AXNT20 KNHC 060003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N24W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N25W TO 9N25W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED THE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 25W-29W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 570 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N50W TO 9N51W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...WHICH ALONG WITH MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 46W-55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N70W TO 12N71W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 65W-75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N81W TO 9N82W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A RIDGE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS W OF 76W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N96W TO THE E PAC WATERS NEAR 12N97W...WITH A WESTWARD TRANSLATION SPEED OF 20- 25 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE SW GULF AS WELL AS INLAND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N25W TO 6N31W 6N39W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N40W AND CONTINUES TO 6N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED BESIDES THE ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OVER THE SW BASIN...A TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS DOMINATING ACROSS THE BASIN IS 5-10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND SE MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUNDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ON THE REGION...ONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE LATTER CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE W-SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BASIN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ABOUNDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE ON THE WESTERN BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SECOND WAVE DRIFTS TO THE WESTERN BASIN. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE SAT MORNING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 72W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N40W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 23N42W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N28W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW BY SAT EVENING. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR