000 AXNT20 KNHC 051749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N23W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N24W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST AREA SURROUNDING THIS WAVE FROM 5N-21N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N49W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 44W-60W WITH DRIER AIR EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W...WHERE THE ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS LOCATED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N70W TO 11N70W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EVIDENT IN ARCHING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 17N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N79W TO 10N79W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AIRMASS...THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MEXICO...AND THE E PACIFIC EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 12N93W MOVING W AT 15KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 10N27W TO 6N36W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1550 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS N FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OCCURRING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 10-20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SMALL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA N OF 16N ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WEST WITH THE ADVANCING WAVE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N72W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATE WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL CONTINUE S OF 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS N FLORIDA AND JUST OFFSHORE OF GA/SC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO