000 AXNT20 KNHC 041759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXITED THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA THIS MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM 20N17W TO 9N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 5- 19N BETWEEN 12W-22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 19W-24W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO 9N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 37W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N62W TO 12N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 59W-68W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N73W TO 12N74W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA SOUTH OF 15N WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 71N AND 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED S OF 16N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N86W TO 15N86W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 83N AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 8N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N31W TO 9N45W TO 8N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE OVER MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICO/TX COAST FROM 21N TO 29N E OF 95W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 32N67W EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE GULF. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E GULF E OF 89W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N85W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WITH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN TROPICAL WAVES. THE WESTERN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IS APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. THIS FIRST WAVE CONTAINED SOME DRY AIR WHICH LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND WAVE IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N45W TO 30N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W. AS OF 1500Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM NEAR 31N78W SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/LATTO