000 AXNT20 KNHC 041024 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 19N41W TO 05N44W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS W OF THE WAVE AXIS E OF 40W...BETWEEN 11-15N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N60W TO 12N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 59W- 63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N71W TO 13N72W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE...NOT AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N84W TO 14N85W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 09N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 10N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 17W- 21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE OVER MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING THE MEXICAN COAST AND SW GULF WATERS QUITE ACTIVE THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 94W...BETWEEN 18N-24N. THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 28N. 10-15 KT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER W CUBA IS ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ALONG THE MEXICO/TX COAST N OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH IN THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER CARIBBEAN...ONE OVER HAITI AND THE OTHER EXITING W CUBA. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE MAKING ITS ENTRANCE TO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 59W-63W. NO OTHER CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 12N67W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ENTERS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HUMID AIRMASS APPROACHES WITH THE PROXIMITY OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEATHER HALF OF THE ATLANTIC...WITH CENTER NEAR 32N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF 30N WITH CENTER NEAR 32N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEXT TO IT...WITH CENTER NEAR 34N61W. THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-32N MAINLY W OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RIVERA