000 AXNT20 KNHC 040518 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 20N39W TO 01N42W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS W OF THE WAVE AXIS E OF 40W...BETWEEN 11-15N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT AROUND 130 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N58W TO 09N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N69W TO 12N70W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE...NOT AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N83W TO 13N84W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DOLLY HAS DISSIPATED INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER W CUBA IS ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS MAINLY NEAR NW CUBA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ALONG THE AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICO/TX COAST NORTH OF 25 N ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH IN THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER CARIBBEAN...ONE OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE OTHER EXITING W CUBA. NO OTHER CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 11N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ENTERS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HUMID AIRMASS APPROACHES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEATHER HALF OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN MAINLY W OF 48W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTH OF 30N WITH CENTER NEAR 32N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEXT TO IT...WITH CENTER NEAR 33N59W. THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-24N MAINLY W OF 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RIVERA