000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 19N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N54W AND 10N57W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N51W 18N56W 15N60W 10N60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...ACROSS THE BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 64W AND 74W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS...THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 32N67W-30N74W-19N82W-HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN WHICH OF THE FEATURES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND NEIGHBORING SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 6N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N37W TO 5N40W 8N46W 10N56W 10N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD...RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N67W-TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...TO 33N77W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. TO TEXAS NEAR 31N97W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SITES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN MCALLEN TEXAS IN THE LOWER VALLEY. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LAFAYETTE AND NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA...AND IN ALABAMA NEAR GULF SHORES. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN FLORIDA...IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN BROOKSVILLE...IN THE TAMPA- SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES INCLUDING IN SARASOTA...TALLAHASSEE IS OBSERVING LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INCLUDING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A 32N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N74W...TO A 19N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. SCATTERED STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE 19N82W TO HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.84 IN MONTERREY IN MEXICO...0.46W IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.14 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA AND IN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 76W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD...CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...ACROSS THE BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 64W AND 74W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FROM 60W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N57W 27N30W BEYOND 32N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...TO 33N77W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. TO TEXAS NEAR 31N97W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT