000 AXNT20 KNHC 031038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 03/09 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS MOVING OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 21.8N 98.4W...MOVING WNW AT 07 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 20N-27N...W OF 95W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N34W TO 10N35W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THIS WAVE JUST S OF 14N...BETWEEN 30W-37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N53W TO 10N54W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ALSO AFFECTING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING S OF 16N...BETWEEN 52W-55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...EXTENDING FROM 21N67W TO 12N69W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 19N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...EXTENDING FROM 23N79W TO 14N80W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CUBA N OF 22N...BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG 20N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 11N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N37W TO 08N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BOUNDARY NEAR WESTERN AFRICA COAST FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED OVER INLAND MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 94W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT DOLLY TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM LA TO FL. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COUPLE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND EXTENDING TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...MAINLY S OF 12N. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH CENTER NEAR 23N78W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W...PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS COMBINED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES PRESENT IN THE AREA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE COASTAL WATER OF HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A NEW TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W INTO THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY ALONG 70W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY...BRINGING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG 77W BETWEEN 22N-29N. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG 28N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA