000 AXNT20 KNHC 011050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N- 12N BETWEEN 23W-25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO 11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID- TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF 23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W. WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT 23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA