000 AXNT20 KNHC 311121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW... IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. ...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT