000 AXNT20 KNHC 261801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N 71.7W AT 26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 470 NM SW OF BERMUDA...MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE N OF 22N BETWEEN 66W- 73W...WITH LIGHTING DATA SHOW A LINE OF TSTMS IN THE SAME REGION. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N17W TO 6N17W WITH AN EXPECTED MOTION OF 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR ENGULFS THE NORTHERN END OF IT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N E OF THE AXIS WITH TSTMS HAPPENING ON SW SENEGAL AND NW GUINEA. ANOTHER REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 14W-19W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N26W TO 13N27W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CLOSE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST IN THE ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 12N48W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WHICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N58W TO 11N58W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND SAHARAN DRY AIR INHIBIT CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W 12N28W TO 13N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 13N37W AND CONTINUES TO 13N46W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N50W TO 11N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH ALOFT REFLECTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N94W SE TO 25N88W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS AXIS. E-NE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE N-NW WIND OF 5 KT IS ON THE WESTERN BASIN. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W- SW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW-LEVEL S-SE WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-83W BEING ENHANCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. ON THE NW CARIBBEAN A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO 18N83W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING... EXPECTED TO BE BE ON THE CENTRAL BASIN BY THU MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW-LEVEL S-SE WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS TO COASTAL ADJACENT WATERS. AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS STILL POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO BE HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N34W AND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR